Crimea under siege: Putin’s fortress will fall soon

[Starmix]

According to the report, when Russia annexed Ukrainian Crimea in 2014, Putin populated it with 100,000 ethnic Russians, completed the Kerch Bridge in 2018, linking Russia to Crimea, and placed it all under the protection of the Black Sea Fleet and the Russian army. Until Putin attempted to take the rest of Ukraine in 2022, this annexation seemed secure.

The report also stated that Ukraine has avoided costly, tactical assaults by land or sea and concentrated its early efforts on depleting Russian air defences. Ukrainian drone and missile technology systematically destroyed Russia’s layered air defences, removing radar, missile launchers, and command centres. At the same time, marine drones sank one third of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, forcing them to flee Sevastopol and withdraw to Novorossiysk on the Russian mainland. Many of the ships sunk were landing craft capable of providing stores and military ordinance by sea, the expert added.

In addition to the report, this month, the Gvardeyskoye fuel depot and distribution centre for the whole of Crimea was destroyed by drones. Gvardeyskoye, situated in the centre of the peninsula, is the main distribution hub for domestic, business, and military requirements. Then Feodosia Oil terminal, the only seaborne route of energy supply to Crimea, was struck and put out of action. The effects were immediate. Although Crimea had struggled through the past three years, the effects of Ukrainian strikes were directed only at military targets. The civilian population, which is predominantly of imported ethnic Russians, was prepared to tolerate a situation they regarded as ‘difficult.’ Now it is more than difficult and getting worse by the day.

 

[gwolf666]

From my analysis, Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014 and Putin's subsequent actions consolidated its control over the peninsula, including the presence of approximately 100,000 ethnic Russians, the completion of the Kerch Bridge in 2018, and the deployment of the Black Sea Fleet and Russian armed forces for its protection. However, Ukraine's strategies have shifted the dynamics of the conflict, avoiding costly confrontations and focusing on disabling Russian air defenses with drones and missiles. This has allowed Ukrainian forces to systematically destroy key components of the Russian air defense, including radars, rocket launchers, and command centers, as well as sink a third of the Black Sea Fleet, forcing the Russian Navy to withdraw from Sevastopol and retreat to Novorossiysk. Recent attacks on critical infrastructure such as the fuel depot in Gvardeyskoye and the Feodosia oil terminal have crippled Crimea's energy and supply routes, severely impacting its economy and military capabilities, and increasing tension and suffering among the already struggling civilian population.

 

[Starmix]

That is the estimation and assumption of the experts in Russia that, sooner or later, Russia will fall. If Putin continues to be stupid, then it will surely happen some months from now.