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Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, paints a very interesting picture: Bitcoin ETFs already manage over $113 billion in assets, and according to his projections, by 2026 institutional demand could far exceed the network's planned supply.
Hougan explains that this phenomenon is not fleeting, but rather part of a historical growth pattern for ETFs, similar to what happened with gold. In the early years, capital inflows are usually modest, but once major banks and financial advisory platforms enable access, demand skyrockets. In fact, firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, UBS, and Wells Fargo have only recently allowed their advisors to invest in Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.
The problem is that Bitcoin's issuance is fixed and limited, while institutional demand is expanding rapidly. Hougan estimates that the network will generate approximately $15.1 billion in new coins in 2026, but ETFs could absorb more than $24 billion, creating a supply deficit.
This imbalance would not only affect BTC but also other cryptocurrencies like ETH and SOL, whose ETFs are already showing signs of exceeding the annual net supply. According to Hougan, we are entering a “sweet spot of adoption,” where Wall Street’s machinery will mobilize capital at a speed that the networks’ planned issuance cannot match.
In conclusion, if these projections hold true, 2026 could mark the beginning of an upward price pressure cycle, driven by relative scarcity in the face of growing institutional demand.
Hougan explains that this phenomenon is not fleeting, but rather part of a historical growth pattern for ETFs, similar to what happened with gold. In the early years, capital inflows are usually modest, but once major banks and financial advisory platforms enable access, demand skyrockets. In fact, firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, UBS, and Wells Fargo have only recently allowed their advisors to invest in Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.
The problem is that Bitcoin's issuance is fixed and limited, while institutional demand is expanding rapidly. Hougan estimates that the network will generate approximately $15.1 billion in new coins in 2026, but ETFs could absorb more than $24 billion, creating a supply deficit.
This imbalance would not only affect BTC but also other cryptocurrencies like ETH and SOL, whose ETFs are already showing signs of exceeding the annual net supply. According to Hougan, we are entering a “sweet spot of adoption,” where Wall Street’s machinery will mobilize capital at a speed that the networks’ planned issuance cannot match.
In conclusion, if these projections hold true, 2026 could mark the beginning of an upward price pressure cycle, driven by relative scarcity in the face of growing institutional demand.