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Imminent collapse: Ukraine for the first time turned Russia from a fuel exporter into an importer

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According to the report, Russia, which for years boasted its status as an "energy superpower," is taking a desperate step: the Eurasian Economic Commission (EAEU) has announced a temporary zero-sum import duty on gasoline, diesel fuel, marine fuel, and jet fuel. The measure will be in effect until June 30, 2026. In other words, Russia is preparing to buy fuel abroad and import it into the country without tax surcharges, because its own capacity is insufficient. Officially, the discussion revolves around "domestic market balance" and "seasonal demand growth." In reality, the decision reflects a systemic crisis in the Russian fuel industry.

The report also stated that production is declining due to Ukrainian drone strikes on oil refineries, exports are limited, and the domestic market is in turmoil. Now Russia is preparing to buy fuel abroad, effectively transforming from an exporter to an importer—a blow to both its image and the economy. The main source of revenue for the Russian budget, oil and gas revenues, has fallen to a five-year low. According to the Russian Ministry of Finance, they will decline by 22% in 2025, reaching 8.65 trillion rubles. This is 2.5 trillion rubles less than the previous year, and the amount is comparable to two-thirds of the Kremlin's annual military spending. The situation is exacerbated not only by low oil and gas prices but also by constant drone attacks on refineries. These attacks disrupt refining, increase risks, and, consequently, drive down the price of Russian oil. To support refineries, Moscow is increasing subsidies: from 2.44 trillion rubles in 2025 to 3.37 trillion by 2028. But the more such injections, the faster the budget deficit grows. At the same time, revenues fall and inflation rises. It's a vicious cycle: money is spent on patching holes, while new holes only multiply.

What a shame for Putin. Russians suffer the devastation of their economy because of the ruthless war. Lucky would be the country where Russia plans to buy a huge amount of gasoline abroad. It might be in Iran, Saudi Arabia, or Qatar.

 
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