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The wild gyrations in the crude oil market are a textbook display of an asset caught between two powerful and opposing macroeconomic forces. On the bullish side, the supply picture remains fraught with tangible risks. Ongoing geopolitical instability in key Middle Eastern production regions, combined with the continued discipline of the OPEC+ alliance in maintaining production cuts, creates a firm floor under prices. Any escalation in conflict or a surprise decision by the cartel to withhold supply further could send prices spiking violently.
