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According to the report, despite lacking the resources for a large-scale military operation, the aggressor state, Russia, may attempt to use hybrid methods to seize territory, similar to those used in Donbas and Crimea. Military expert and former SBU officer Ivan Stupak voiced this opinion during a chat on Glavred.
The report also stated that Russia currently lacks sufficient forces to repeat a full-scale invasion similar to the war in Ukraine, as all its resources are focused on the Ukrainian front. Therefore, hundreds of tanks won't be deployed to Estonia, Latvia, or Lithuania. However, the expert notes that these countries are small in size, meaning that a much smaller force could be sufficient for destabilization.
The report also said that Moscow may try to take advantage of Europe's current weakness. In two years, Europe could be much stronger, and the moment will be lost. Weakness provokes aggression, so Russia could try to seize a country, city, or region. As reported, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius stated that NATO should update its assessments regarding a possible escalation by Russia.
The report also stated that Russia currently lacks sufficient forces to repeat a full-scale invasion similar to the war in Ukraine, as all its resources are focused on the Ukrainian front. Therefore, hundreds of tanks won't be deployed to Estonia, Latvia, or Lithuania. However, the expert notes that these countries are small in size, meaning that a much smaller force could be sufficient for destabilization.
The report also said that Moscow may try to take advantage of Europe's current weakness. In two years, Europe could be much stronger, and the moment will be lost. Weakness provokes aggression, so Russia could try to seize a country, city, or region. As reported, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius stated that NATO should update its assessments regarding a possible escalation by Russia.